Thu, Dec 15, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 1, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 08 | 011 | 01 | 126 |
| WPG | 110 | 019 | 010 | 12 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:04NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:24WPGDylan DeMeloAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- OT 3:31WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:16WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:16NSHRoman Josi: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:07WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:07NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:15NSHCole Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 11:00NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:11WPGJansen Harkins: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:50NSHFilip Forsberg: Holding2 min
- P3 5:25NSHRoland McKeown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:47WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:47WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:47NSHRoland McKeown: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Sissons – Glass6:56
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Jankowski – Glass2:05
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Trenin – Jeannot – Parssinen6:17
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Jankowski – Smith6:03
xG 0.03–0.41 (7%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro12:00
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Gravel – McKeown11:06
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Josi – Gross15:38
xG 0.66–1.56 (30%)attempts 17–25goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti11:02
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois4:38
xG 0.46–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Stenlund – Gustafsson3:46
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Harkins – Stenlund – Barron2:03
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo3:36
xG 0.82–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey11:05
xG 0.76–0.26 (74%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Dillon – Morrissey3:42
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).