Thu, Dec 15, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 012 | 212 | 03 | 1 | 432 |
| EDM | 110 | 15 | 111 | 01 | 0 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 6:47STLJordan KyrouAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:42EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Stuart Skinner · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 10:36EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 11:25STLRobert ThomasAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:40STLVladimir TarasenkoSHAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 2. STL Jordan Kyrou scored
- 3. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 4. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 5. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:31STLJosh Leivo: Bench2 min · PPG
- P1 10:58EDMJames Hamblin: Holding2 min
- P1 18:43STLJordan Kyrou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:28STLJosh Leivo: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 5:17EDMKailer Yamamoto: Holding2 min
- P2 7:31EDMKailer Yamamoto: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 19:09EDMMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:16STLPavel Buchnevich: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:58STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Kyrou – Thomas11:25
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Leivo – Saad8:35
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Acciari – Toropchenko3:29
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Buchnevich8:22
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Mikkola2:37
xG 0.34–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug12:17
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Krug2:08
xG 0.15–0.11 (59%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Janmark – Yamamoto9:53
xG 0.92–0.37 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Puljujarvi – Hamblin – Holloway3:39
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Shore – Ryan – Kostin7:00
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid15:15
xG 0.80–0.83 (49%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak10:08
xG 1.03–0.36 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Ceci – Nurse18:33
xG 1.12–0.93 (55%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Kulak – Bouchard3:08
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).