Fri, Dec 16, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 13 | 39 | 524 |
| CGY | 114 | 015 | 114 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:01CGYConnor MackeyAssists: Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:08STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 3:46STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 7:40CGYConnor MackeyAssists: Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 8:58STLBrandon SaadUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 9:59STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:52CGYTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:08STLNoel Acciari: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:46STLIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:40STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:39CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Kyrou – Thomas9:42
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Walker – Acciari – Toropchenko6:31
xG 0.02–0.10 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Buchnevich12:29
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Leivo – Saad10:51
xG 0.30–0.72 (29%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Mikkola10:05
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Leddy – Parayko20:58
xG 0.53–0.88 (37%)attempts 11–28goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug14:05
xG 0.60–1.15 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Ruzicka7:40
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube11:47
xG 0.97–0.63 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Lucic – Backlund – Coleman3:54
xG 0.24–0.16 (61%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Zohorna6:28
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson18:02
xG 1.26–0.79 (61%)attempts 22–16goals 0–1
- Stone – Mackey10:46
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Weegar – Zadorov19:02
xG 0.62–0.92 (40%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).