Fri, Dec 16, 2022·Mullett Arena, Tempe
New York Islanders 4, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 211 | 17 | 116 | 434 |
| ARI | 111 | 213 | 25 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41NYISebastian AhoAssists: Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 13:33NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Robin Salo, Oliver Wahlstrom · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 19:16ARIShayne GostisbehereUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 8:55ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 9:09ARINick BjugstadAssists: Joshua Brown, Matias Maccelli · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 17:45NYINoah DobsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–3
- P3 2:08ARITravis BoydAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 14:49ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Jakob Chychrun · Slap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 18:21NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Anders Lee, Oliver Wahlstrom · Slap, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:36ARITroy Stecher: Holding2 min
- P1 17:13NYIAnthony Beauvillier: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:21NYIRyan Pulock: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:16NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:56ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:43NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:22ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:41ARILiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:41NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:41ARILiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:59ARINick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P3 15:16NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Barzal – Wahlstrom7:47
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:22
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier4:59
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Parise – Palmieri – Pageau5:10
xG 0.04–0.63 (7%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson9:27
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Romanov7:57
xG 0.06–0.20 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Schmaltz – Keller10:07
xG 0.78–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli6:38
xG 0.55–0.35 (62%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Keller – Hayton2:58
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain5:34
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 8–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chychrun12:18
xG 0.81–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–9goals 4–1
- Nemeth – Stecher5:27
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Brown – Moser10:00
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).