Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Buffalo Sabres 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 112 | 318 | 543 |
| ARI | 17 | 115 | 09 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:35ARIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:34BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Deflected, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 12:16ARIBarrett HaytonUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 16:42BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 10:07BUFTage ThompsonPPGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 18:32BUFTyson JostENAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–2
- P3 19:08BUFKyle OkposoENAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:44BUFKale Clague: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 5:33ARIJack McBain: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:59ARIJan Jenik: Holding2 min
- P1 9:20BUFPeyton Krebs: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:47BUFJeremy Davies: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:33ARILawson Crouse: Interference2 min
- P2 6:17ARIJan Jenik: Interference2 min
- P2 17:37BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:46BUFRasmus Dahlin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:15ARINick Bjugstad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:57BUFKale Clague: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson9:15
xG 0.76–0.20 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka6:04
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt8:10
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs10:21
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Dahlin9:52
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin3:01
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Clague – Fitzgerald2:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:29
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Fischer – Hayton – McBain2:40
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Fischer – Hayton3:18
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Fischer – McBain3:31
xG 0.09–0.10 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chychrun14:57
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Stecher6:58
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stecher – Välimäki3:03
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).