Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 5, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 29 | 27 | 527 |
| VAN | 03 | 09 | 111 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:30WPGKyle CapobiancoGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 12:08WPGNeal PionkAssists: Brenden Dillon, Cole Perfetti · Slap, 0.01 xG3–0
- P3 0:56WPGSam GagnerAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 7:59WPGAxel Jonsson-FjallbyAssists: Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 14:36VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:20VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:21WPGSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:11WPGCole Perfetti: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:48VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:28WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Kuhlman – Perfetti12:22
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson9:48
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Barron10:38
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois11:10
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:33
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk14:31
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Capobianco – Samberg14:42
xG 0.34–0.66 (34%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Horvat – Garland6:13
xG 0.33–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Lazar – Pederson – Hoglander3:46
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dries – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko4:41
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Horvat – Lazar – Garland6:26
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes3:03
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson2:03
xG 0.01–0.04 (17%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Myers – Stillman13:38
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).