Sun, Dec 18, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 16 | 18 | 225 |
| CAR | 07 | 113 | 29 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:25CARDerek StepanAssists: Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:20PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 5:03PITBrock McGinnAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 8:17CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Derek Stepan, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 13:33CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:04CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:03CARBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P2 3:50PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:09CARMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:15CARJaccob Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 15:53PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:37PITRyan Poehling: Holding2 min
- P2 17:47CARStefan Noesen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:00
xG 0.98–0.51 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen8:58
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling6:27
xG 0.15–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Heinen9:31
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson15:16
xG 0.98–0.37 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph11:14
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Dumoulin – Rutta13:21
xG 0.29–0.63 (32%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis10:51
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:40
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Stepan – Noesen – Drury4:39
xG 0.10–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov11:55
xG 0.73–1.06 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:36
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- de Haan – Chatfield9:20
xG 0.22–0.52 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:47
xG 0.58–1.00 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).