Mon, Dec 19, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
New York Islanders 0, Colorado Avalanche 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 07 | 08 | 00 | 0 | 026 |
| COL | 010 | 015 | 019 | 02 | 1 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. COL Evan Rodrigues scored
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 3. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:47COLKurtis MacDermid: Interference2 min
- P2 1:53NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:31NYIZach Parise: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Beauvillier12:02
xG 0.79–0.59 (57%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom10:45
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom9:31
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching7:39
xG 0.14–0.73 (16%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pulock – Aho2:42
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pulock – Salo7:55
xG 0.82–0.87 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov18:25
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 17–27goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Lehkonen – Rantanen15:29
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook9:12
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Meyers7:19
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar18:33
xG 1.46–0.32 (82%)attempts 41–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard14:30
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:22
xG 0.03–0.42 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).