Thu, Dec 22, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 28 | 011 | 116 | 11 | 436 |
| PIT | 19 | 16 | 112 | 00 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:28PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 17:43CARMartin NecasAssists: Calvin de Haan, Dylan Coghlan · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 18:00CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 19:15PITBrock McGinnSHAssists: Teddy Blueger, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 12:55PITBryan RustAssists: Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 15:34CARJordan StaalAssists: Dylan Coghlan, Jesper Fast · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:23CARJaccob SlavinGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:49CARJalen Chatfield: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:32PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:32PITChad Ruhwedel: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:14CARMartin Necas: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:14PITBrock McGinn: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:31PITJan Rutta: Holding2 min
- P2 9:35CARBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P2 11:51CARCalvin de Haan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:53PITRickard Rakell: Interference2 min
- P2 17:25PITJason Zucker: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Necas – Svechnikov12:51
xG 1.18–0.35 (77%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook14:04
xG 0.91–0.48 (66%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Stepan – Noesen – Drury4:27
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis8:25
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Coghlan9:59
xG 1.08–0.49 (69%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin17:25
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 28–11goals 0–1
- Pesce – Chatfield13:55
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Heinen – O'Connor3:44
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust10:09
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel15:25
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen8:27
xG 0.12–1.17 (9%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ruhwedel – Joseph8:36
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson16:14
xG 0.56–0.91 (38%)attempts 17–25goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Rutta13:04
xG 0.34–1.27 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).