Thu, Dec 22, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 15 | 28 | 05 | 318 |
| NYR | 19 | 113 | 312 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48NYIAnders LeeAssists: Alexander Romanov, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 17:14NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:39NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 5:30NYRJulien GauthierAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 8:45NYIAlexander RomanovAssists: Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 3:00NYRBarclay GoodrowAssists: Julien Gauthier, Ben Harpur · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 17:13NYRKaapo KakkoGWGAssists: K'Andre Miller, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 18:28NYRVincent TrocheckENAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:26NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:58NYRJonny Brodzinski: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:16NYIScott Mayfield: Holding2 min
- P1 15:32NYINoah Dobson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:38NYIAlexander Romanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:44NYRFilip Chytil: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:08NYIAlexander Romanov: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:07NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Beauvillier9:47
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching4:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom6:57
xG 0.06–0.26 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:19
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Aho3:57
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pulock – Salo5:41
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Pulock – Romanov4:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Lafrenière8:43
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Kravtsov7:45
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Brodzinski – Gauthier5:32
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Zibanejad – Goodrow – Panarin2:04
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller15:11
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Harpur – Schneider10:45
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren14:13
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).