Mon, Feb 27, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 19 | 06 | 224 |
| OTT | 015 | 416 | 211 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Pius Suter, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 3:41OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:11DETDavid PerronPPAssists: Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 12:25OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:10OTTClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Dylan Gambrell, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 17:41OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Claude Giroux, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 0:47OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Claude Giroux, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 15:00OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:45DETJonatan Berggren: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:10DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:29DETFilip Hronek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:00OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:41DETBen Chiarot: Charging2 min
- P2 12:00DETDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:59OTTDrake Batherson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:44DETAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Suter – Zadina7:51
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Veleno – Zadina – Berggren2:11
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Copp – Fabbri – Raymond7:57
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Bertuzzi – Larkin9:12
xG 0.47–0.69 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Lindstrom2:02
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Maatta – Lindstrom11:50
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider15:51
xG 0.48–0.85 (36%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:55
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic8:19
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:17
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Joseph – Gauthier – Gambrell8:18
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom14:44
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson13:19
xG 0.66–0.41 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub16:12
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).