Fri, Dec 23, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Florida Panthers 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 06 | 09 | 123 |
| NYI | 012 | 216 | 315 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:09FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 5:20NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 19:15NYIRyan PulockGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 7:10NYIAatu RätyAssists: Anders Lee, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 8:21NYIZach PariseAssists: Alexander Romanov · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 15:50NYIAnthony BeauvillierENAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:52FLAGrigori Denisenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:16NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:16FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:38FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:55NYINoah Dobson: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:06FLASam Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:11FLAGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:11NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:54FLAGustav Forsling: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:20NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:00NYINoah Dobson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:57FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:07NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:07FLABrandon Montour: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:53FLAGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Lundell3:02
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell4:44
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen2:17
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Dalpe – Smith – Denisenko4:03
xG 0.16–0.43 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Kiersted3:28
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Forsling2:55
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Mahura4:47
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Pageau – Holmstrom5:49
xG 0.87–0.21 (81%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Martin – Fasching – Räty2:23
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom6:18
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier3:52
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Wotherspoon11:01
xG 1.02–0.16 (87%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Aho – Dobson9:16
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Romanov11:32
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).