Fri, Dec 23, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 121 | 115 | 12 | 346 |
| NSH | 115 | 19 | 014 | 01 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:26NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 6:22NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Cody Glass, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 12:46COLMikko RantanenAssists: Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 15:05COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 4:17COLSamuel GirardGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:03NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:38COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:50NSHAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:34COLEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P2 4:20COLEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:15NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 18:49NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Lehkonen – Rantanen13:33
xG 1.11–0.59 (65%)attempts 26–15goals 1–0
- Malgin – O'Connor – Meyers3:11
xG 0.50–0.06 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kaut – O'Connor – Meyers2:53
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Malgin – Newhook7:14
xG 0.46–0.62 (42%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:26
xG 0.81–0.54 (60%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Toews – Girard3:48
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard10:52
xG 0.59–0.77 (43%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Parssinen – Smith10:01
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Jeannot – Glass8:49
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Trenin8:44
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Novak8:08
xG 0.43–0.96 (31%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier14:57
xG 0.83–0.52 (61%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Carrier2:23
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi14:13
xG 0.50–0.80 (39%)attempts 7–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).