Tue, Dec 27, 2022·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Colorado Avalanche 3, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 112 | 19 | 331 |
| ARI | 212 | 210 | 211 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:55ARIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:32COLEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Cale Makar, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 11:33ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 5:59ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 11:23COLCale MakarAssists: J.T. Compher, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 16:38ARIJ.J. MoserGWGAssists: Lawson Crouse, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 3:43ARIMichael CarconeAssists: Lawson Crouse, Jakob Chychrun · Slap, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 5:24COLMikko RantanenAssists: Erik Johnson, Samuel Girard · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 19:04ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:22ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:36COLAndreas Englund: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:24COLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:00COLBrad Hunt: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Malgin – Newhook10:16
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Hudon – O'Connor – Meyers2:14
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Meyers9:21
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Compher – Lehkonen – Rantanen13:50
xG 0.44–0.82 (35%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Englund7:56
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard14:39
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 1–3
- Toews – Makar15:07
xG 0.51–0.71 (42%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Carcone10:53
xG 0.69–0.45 (60%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller13:39
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Fischer – Hayton9:38
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Kassian – Hayton – McBain5:43
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Moser10:56
xG 0.98–0.32 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun16:54
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Brown – Moser4:05
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).