Wed, Dec 28, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 014 | 216 | 214 | 12 | 546 |
| PIT | 412 | 09 | 08 | 02 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:15PITJeff CarterPPAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 14:15PITJason ZuckerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P1 19:27PITJason ZuckerPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Bryan Rust · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 7:17DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P2 14:32DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Ben Chiarot, Elmer Soderblom · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 15:00DETJonatan BerggrenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 16:52DETDavid PerronPPAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 2:13DETJake WalmanGWGAssists: Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:31PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:48DETDavid Perron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:17DETDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:03PITRickard Rakell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:52PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:41PITDanton Heinen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Larkin – Rasmussen12:47
xG 1.05–0.19 (85%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Copp – Erne – Raymond8:15
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Veleno – Berggren – Soderblom7:05
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 2–2
- Sundqvist – Kubalik – Suter12:23
xG 0.52–1.22 (30%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Hronek14:00
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider15:50
xG 1.00–0.71 (59%)attempts 20–18goals 2–0
- Walman – Seider2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust11:48
xG 0.95–0.44 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Blueger – Kapanen – O'Connor4:34
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel15:07
xG 0.63–0.76 (45%)attempts 21–18goals 0–2
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen7:29
xG 0.30–0.95 (24%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFriedman – Joseph11:30
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Letang – Pettersson20:15
xG 0.97–1.27 (43%)attempts 27–23goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Rutta14:39
xG 0.53–1.03 (34%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).