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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 28, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Detroit Red Wings 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.

PIT winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:53Shot by Walman, saved by DeSmith
  3. P1 1:55Shot by Maatta, saved by DeSmith
  4. P1 2:36Goal by O'Connor (Kapanen, Blueger)+18 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Blueger, Kapanen, Friedman, Joseph, O'Connor · DET Maatta, Oesterle, Veleno, Berggren, Soderblom

  5. P1 2:50Shot by Chiarot, saved by DeSmith
  6. P1 2:55Shot by Rasmussen, saved by DeSmith
  7. P1 3:06Shot by Crosby, saved by Husso
  8. P1 4:31Joseph: High sticking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: PIT Carter, Dumoulin, McGinn, Heinen, Rutta · DET Perron, Chiarot, Kubalik, Larkin, Walman, Rasmussen

  9. P1 5:19Shot by Hronek, saved by DeSmith4v5
  10. P1 5:59Shot by Kubalik, saved by DeSmith4v5
  11. P1 6:03Shot by Veleno, saved by DeSmith4v5
  12. P1 6:23Shot by Veleno, saved by DeSmith4v5
  13. P1 6:34Shot by Berggren, saved by DeSmith
  14. P1 7:05Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso
  15. P1 8:48Perron: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Dumoulin, Rakell, Guentzel, Rutta · DET Perron, Maatta, Oesterle, Larkin, Rasmussen

  16. P1 10:15Goal by Carter (Kapanen, Rust)5v4+12 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Carter, Zucker, Rust, Kapanen, Joseph · DET Erne, Walman, Hronek, Rasmussen

  17. P1 10:29Shot by Sundqvist, saved by DeSmith
  18. P1 10:35Shot by Suter, saved by DeSmith
  19. P1 11:11Shot by O'Connor, saved by Husso
  20. P1 11:54Shot by Rasmussen, saved by DeSmith
  21. P1 12:59Shot by Rutta, saved by Husso
  22. P1 14:15Goal by Zucker, unassisted+8 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Zucker, Rust, Friedman, Joseph · DET Walman, Hronek, Veleno, Berggren, Soderblom

  23. P1 16:34Shot by Heinen, saved by Husso
  24. P1 16:37Shot by McGinn, saved by Husso
  25. P1 17:53Shot by Larkin, saved by DeSmith
  26. P1 18:17Perron: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Rakell, Guentzel, Friedman, Joseph · DET Perron, Larkin, Walman, Hronek, Rasmussen

  27. P1 18:33Shot by Copp, saved by DeSmith5v4
  28. P1 19:15Shot by Rakell, saved by Husso5v4
  29. P1 19:26Shot by Carter, saved by Husso5v4
  30. P1 19:27Goal by Zucker (Carter, Rust)5v4+4 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Carter, Zucker, Rust, Kapanen, Joseph · DET Maatta, Sundqvist, Hronek, Suter

  31. P1 0:00Period end
  32. P2 0:00Period start
  33. P2 0:37Shot by Pettersson, saved by Hellberg
  34. P2 0:53Shot by Guentzel, saved by Hellberg
  35. P2 2:42Shot by Suter, saved by DeSmith
  36. P2 3:09Shot by Pettersson, saved by Hellberg
  37. P2 3:28Shot by Crosby, saved by Hellberg
  38. P2 4:46Shot by Hronek, saved by DeSmith
  39. P2 5:13Shot by Rust, saved by Hellberg
  40. P2 5:54Shot by Pettersson, saved by Hellberg
  41. P2 5:56Shot by Zucker, saved by Hellberg
  42. P2 6:03Rakell: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rakell, Guentzel, Pettersson · DET Sundqvist, Hronek, Suter, Berggren, Seider

  43. P2 6:12Shot by Perron, saved by DeSmith4v5
  44. P2 6:47Shot by Larkin, saved by DeSmith4v5
  45. P2 7:17Goal by Larkin (Raymond, Hronek)4v5+3 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Dumoulin, Blueger, McGinn, Rutta · DET Perron, Larkin, Hronek, Rasmussen, Raymond

  46. P2 8:54Shot by Erne, saved by DeSmith
  47. P2 9:18Shot by Perron, saved by DeSmith
  48. P2 9:20Shot by Larkin, saved by DeSmith
  49. P2 9:21Shot by Perron, saved by DeSmith
  50. P2 9:53Shot by Hronek, saved by DeSmith
  51. P2 12:27Shot by Seider, saved by DeSmith
  52. P2 12:49Shot by Blueger, saved by Hellberg
  53. P2 13:55Shot by Rutta, saved by Hellberg
  54. P2 14:32Goal by Veleno (Chiarot, Soderblom)+7 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Dumoulin, Rakell, Guentzel, Rutta · DET Chiarot, Veleno, Berggren, Seider, Soderblom

  55. P2 15:18Shot by Kubalik, saved by DeSmith
  56. P2 17:51Shot by Maatta, saved by DeSmith
  57. P2 17:55Shot by Chiarot, saved by DeSmith
  58. P2 18:30Shot by Sundqvist, saved by DeSmith
  59. P2 0:00Period end
  60. P3 0:00Period start
  61. P3 0:14Shot by Rasmussen, saved by DeSmith
  62. P3 4:05Shot by Letang, saved by Hellberg
  63. P3 4:34Shot by Seider, saved by DeSmith
  64. P3 4:48Shot by Copp, saved by DeSmith
  65. P3 5:08Shot by Letang, saved by Hellberg
  66. P3 5:11Shot by Zucker, saved by Hellberg
  67. P3 5:27Shot by Zucker, saved by Hellberg
  68. P3 5:38Shot by Kubalik, saved by DeSmith
  69. P3 6:19Shot by Veleno, saved by DeSmith
  70. P3 6:22Shot by Veleno, saved by DeSmith
  71. P3 6:24Shot by Walman, saved by DeSmith
  72. P3 8:17Shot by Sundqvist, saved by DeSmith
  73. P3 9:12Shot by McGinn, saved by Hellberg
  74. P3 9:52Guentzel: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Carter, Letang, Guentzel, Pettersson, Heinen · DET Perron, Chiarot, Larkin, Rasmussen, Seider

  75. P3 10:44Shot by Rasmussen, saved by DeSmith4v5
  76. P3 11:14Shot by Larkin, saved by DeSmith4v5
  77. P3 15:00Goal by Berggren, unassisted+11 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rakell, Guentzel, Pettersson · DET Chiarot, Veleno, Berggren, Seider, Soderblom

  78. P3 15:47Shot by Zucker, saved by Hellberg
  79. P3 16:41Heinen: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rakell, Guentzel, Pettersson · DET Copp, Erne, Oesterle, Walman, Raymond

  80. P3 16:52Goal by Perron (Rasmussen, Raymond)4v5+36 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Carter, Dumoulin, Rust, Rutta · DET Perron, Larkin, Hronek, Rasmussen, Raymond

  81. P3 17:29Shot by Rakell, saved by Hellberg
  82. P3 18:00Shot by Zucker, saved by Hellberg
  83. P3 18:35Shot by Rasmussen, saved by DeSmith
  84. P3 18:50Shot by Erne, saved by DeSmith
  85. P3 0:00Period end
  86. OT 0:00Period start
  87. OT 1:18Shot by Rust, saved by Hellberg3v3
  88. OT 1:59Shot by Rasmussen, saved by DeSmith3v3
  89. OT 2:07Shot by Joseph, saved by Hellberg3v3
  90. OT 2:13Goal by Walman (Copp)3v3+52 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Guentzel, Joseph · DET Copp, Walman, Rasmussen

  91. OT 2:13Period end4v4
  92. OT 2:13Final