Wed, Dec 28, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 117 | 120 | 013 | 01 | 0 | 251 |
| ANA | 27 | 05 | 010 | 05 | 2 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:26ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 13:15VGKMark StoneSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 13:32VGKBen HuttonAssists: Michael Amadio, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Trevor Zegras scored
- 2. VGK Mark Stone stopped
- 3. ANA Troy Terry scored
- 4. VGK Reilly Smith stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:12ANAMason McTavish: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:22ANADmitry Kulikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:03VGKPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:48ANATrevor Zegras: Holding2 min
- P2 4:26ANATrevor Zegras: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:41ANASimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:01VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:21VGKBrayden Pachal: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:11VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:13VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zegras won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Rondbjerg6:49
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Dorofeyev5:59
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy6:19
xG 0.33–0.30 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kessel – Smith – Karlsson2:27
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague16:40
xG 0.94–0.28 (77%)attempts 23–15goals 0–1
- Hutton – Pachal8:12
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Pachal4:20
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Megna – Kirkland4:32
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras9:01
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Comtois – Leason – McTavish4:35
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Strome – Comtois4:20
xG 0.00–0.27 (1%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Klingberg4:00
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Vaakanainen9:54
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Fowler12:09
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).