Thu, Dec 29, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 2, Florida Panthers 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 214 | 02 | 011 | 227 |
| FLA | 315 | 112 | 314 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Gustav Forsling, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:50FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 14:14MTLArber XhekajPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 15:22FLAAleksander BarkovGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P1 19:13MTLJosh AndersonPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Arber Xhekaj · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 6:22FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 4:14FLACarter VerhaegheUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 7:24FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.40 xG2–6
- P3 9:31FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Sam Bennett, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.15 xG2–7
Penalties (18)
- P1 10:50MTLJoel Armia: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:14FLARadko Gudas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:28FLAEetu Luostarinen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:37MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 7:10FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P2 15:46MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:40MTLKirby Dach: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:44MTLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44MTLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:44MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44FLAMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44MTLJoel Edmundson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:40MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:40MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:40MTLBrendan Gallagher: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:40FLABrandon Montour: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:40FLABrandon Montour: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Anderson – Evans8:02
xG 0.57–0.26 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Slafkovský7:43
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Armia – Drouin6:41
xG 0.16–0.58 (22%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield9:13
xG 0.14–0.85 (14%)attempts 6–15goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestHarris – Barron13:23
xG 0.59–0.53 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Guhle11:58
xG 0.22–0.81 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–3
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj12:23
xG 0.26–0.95 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – White10:05
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Staal – Cousins – Lomberg10:27
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen7:57
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Lundell – Levtchi6:30
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling9:14
xG 0.97–0.07 (93%)attempts 17–4goals 3–0
- Staal – Montour12:54
xG 0.77–0.39 (67%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Gudas – Forsling2:09
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).