Thu, Dec 29, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 019 | 010 | 05 | 1 | 146 |
| TBL | 012 | 014 | 111 | 03 | 2 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:45NYRMika ZibanejadUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 5:32TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 2. NYR Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 6. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
- 7. TBL Ross Colton stopped
- 8. NYR Kaapo Kakko stopped
- 9. TBL Nick Paul stopped
- 10. NYR Filip Chytil stopped
- 11. TBL Alex Killorn scored
- 12. NYR Adam Fox stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:47NYRJonny Brodzinski: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:14TBLNick Perbix: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:22TBLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- OT 2:06TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGauthier – Chytil – Kravtsov9:38
xG 0.74–0.24 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Vesey – Brodzinski – Blais8:18
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Goodrow – Panarin12:38
xG 0.44–0.80 (36%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko13:46
xG 0.60–1.19 (34%)attempts 11–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Schneider11:29
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren16:24
xG 0.89–0.93 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Trouba – Miller16:13
xG 0.91–1.32 (41%)attempts 25–27goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Hagel7:40
xG 0.64–0.08 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel6:37
xG 0.76–0.35 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point7:48
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare6:49
xG 0.41–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix8:30
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Sergachev9:00
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:49
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).