Thu, Dec 29, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 07 | 16 | 222 |
| WPG | 06 | 320 | 113 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 13:52WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:42WPGPierre-Luc DuboisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 19:57WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 13:11VANConor GarlandAssists: Quinn Hughes, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:32WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Adam Lowry · Tip-in, 0.79 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:20WPGMorgan Barron: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:46WPGDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:15VANLane Pederson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42VANEthan Bear: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:08VANEthan Bear: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:00WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
- P2 19:32VANTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P3 6:50VANJack Studnicka: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Lazar – Garland6:52
xG 0.51–0.24 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Mikheyev7:48
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Boeser3:02
xG 0.02–0.16 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko2:14
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Hughes2:04
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bear – Hughes15:22
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Schenn – Dermott11:12
xG 0.27–0.78 (26%)attempts 3–21goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron10:00
xG 0.89–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Scheifele – Kuhlman10:57
xG 1.03–0.55 (65%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Harkins – Eyssimont – Gustafsson4:39
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois12:54
xG 0.49–0.67 (42%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk8:27
xG 1.03–0.28 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:33
xG 0.99–0.52 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Samberg – Heinola3:31
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).