Thu, Dec 29, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 5, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 16 | 27 | 02 | 2 | 527 |
| COL | 07 | 411 | 08 | 01 | 0 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:56LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:36COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 13:59LAKPhillip DanaultPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 15:58COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:43COLCale MakarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 18:47COLEvan RodriguesAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 1:11LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 14:20LAKSean WalkerAssists: Kevin Fiala, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. LAK Gabriel Vilardi stopped
- 2. COL Evan Rodrigues stopped
- 3. LAK Viktor Arvidsson scored
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:32COLBen Meyers: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:30LAKKevin Fiala: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:16LAKSean Walker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:56COLKurtis MacDermid: Holding2 min
- P2 10:15LAKSean Durzi: Interference2 min
- P2 12:28COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:55COLAndreas Englund: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:55LAKJaret Anderson-Dolan: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:26COLBrad Hunt: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28LAKPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:13LAKSean Walker: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Meyers won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Vilardi – Lizotte3:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Anderson-Dolan – Vilardi – Lizotte5:07
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Iafallo10:51
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe7:35
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Edler – Walker13:00
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Roy – Durzi11:24
xG 0.19–0.34 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:17
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Lehkonen – Rantanen10:46
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Malgin – Newhook10:19
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Meyers8:41
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:09
xG 0.69–0.19 (78%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Hunt – Englund5:55
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard11:53
xG 0.09–0.40 (18%)attempts 5–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).