Fri, Dec 30, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 6, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 113 | 216 | 314 | 643 |
| ANA | 09 | 112 | 06 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06NSHColton SissonsAssists: Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 2:20ANASam CarrickAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Jayson Megna · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:04NSHYakov TreninGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:20NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Juuso Parssinen, Colton Sissons · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 10:44NSHTommy NovakAssists: Cole Smith, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 15:43NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Juuso Parssinen, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–1
- P3 19:47NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Mikael Granlund, Cody Glass · Deflected, 0.12 xG6–1
Penalties (2)
- P2 15:02NSHRyan McDonagh: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:07ANAAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Parssinen won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Jeannot – Smith9:15
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Granlund – Niederreiter – Glass12:48
xG 1.09–0.63 (63%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Trenin10:39
xG 0.73–0.42 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Sissons – Parssinen11:20
xG 0.72–0.45 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Fabbro15:10
xG 1.09–0.46 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Josi18:44
xG 1.71–1.22 (58%)attempts 32–23goals 3–0
- Ekholm – Carrier17:37
xG 0.86–0.66 (57%)attempts 23–15goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Vatrano – Leason – McTavish12:25
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras14:33
xG 0.94–1.29 (42%)attempts 17–19goals 0–2
- Silfverberg – Strome – Comtois14:04
xG 0.57–0.95 (38%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
- Carrick – Megna – Kirkland6:57
xG 0.27–0.71 (28%)attempts 4–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Fowler16:40
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Benoit15:47
xG 1.09–1.23 (47%)attempts 24–18goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Vaakanainen17:03
xG 0.72–1.70 (30%)attempts 13–33goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).