Fri, Dec 30, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 0, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 011 | 05 | 019 |
| CAR | 112 | 211 | 111 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05CARStefan NoesenPPGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 4:58CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Brent Burns, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 11:55CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 3:50CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Brett Pesce, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:38CARJordan Martinook: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 5:14FLABrandon Montour: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:55CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:05FLARadko Gudas: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:45CARMartin Necas: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:03FLAColin White: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45FLASam Bennett: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 13:29CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:17CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:45FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:31CARDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:12CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:12FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen8:23
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – White9:19
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cousins – Reinhart – Lundell3:43
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Lundell – Levtchi2:09
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura9:48
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling8:26
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour10:25
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Noesen – Kotkaniemi6:26
xG 0.50–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis6:48
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:13
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov10:00
xG 0.32–0.63 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Chatfield13:17
xG 0.62–0.04 (93%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin11:08
xG 0.50–0.62 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce11:16
xG 0.13–0.48 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).