Sat, Dec 31, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 4, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 425 |
| BOS | 19 | 011 | 219 | 01 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:09BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:13BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 2:03BUFAlex TuchAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 5:16BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Jake DeBrusk · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 12:25BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:23BUFDylan CozensAssists: Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:53BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:39BOSA.J. Greer: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 1:43BOSTrent Frederic: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 1:43BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:40BUFKale Clague: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:51BOSConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:51BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:22BOSCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:56BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P3 4:48BUFKyle Okposo: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:24BUFJJ Peterka: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:28BUFIlya Lyubushkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt7:03
xG 0.01–0.02 (43%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:09
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka8:41
xG 0.35–0.61 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:30
xG 0.38–0.77 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power3:11
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power6:16
xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin2:17
xG 0.07–0.08 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk11:41
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha8:18
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greer – Frederic4:35
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak3:46
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy12:31
xG 0.92–0.34 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy2:59
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo2:44
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).