Sat, Dec 31, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 29 | 08 | 220 | 00 | 437 |
| VGK | 113 | 27 | 110 | 12 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:22NSHJeremy LauzonAssists: Mikael Granlund, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 15:55VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Daniil Miromanov, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 1:43VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 8:53VGKReilly SmithAssists: Keegan Kolesar, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 4:41VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mark Stone · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 11:41NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Colton Sissons · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:55NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 2:04VGKNicolas HagueGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 9:02VGKBrayden McNabb: Match penalty5 min
- P2 9:02NSHYakov Trenin: Instigator2 min
- P2 9:02NSHYakov Trenin: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:02VGKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:02NSHYakov Trenin: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 11:11NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P2 16:06VGKJake Leschyshyn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:31NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 18:50VGKReilly Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Niederreiter – Glass10:37
xG 0.97–0.34 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Trenin6:13
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Novak – Jeannot3:42
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Sissons – Parssinen8:10
xG 0.24–0.60 (28%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier17:07
xG 1.46–0.93 (61%)attempts 21–24goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:15
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Josi14:15
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy11:13
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Amadio12:23
xG 0.95–0.88 (52%)attempts 21–15goals 2–0
- Kessel – Smith – Karlsson7:38
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg – Rempal6:09
xG 0.01–0.44 (3%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miromanov7:46
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
- Pietrangelo – Hague19:43
xG 1.24–1.36 (48%)attempts 31–22goals 2–1
- Hutton – Pachal16:56
xG 0.62–1.07 (37%)attempts 15–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).