Sat, Dec 31, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 214 | 28 | 532 |
| STL | 112 | 15 | 014 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41STLCalle RosenAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:02MINMathew DumbaAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:40MINRyan HartmanAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 5:01STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 5:13MINRyan HartmanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 0:49MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway · Snap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 15:56MINJordan GreenwayENAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.79 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:41MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:18STLNiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P2 8:15STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:47MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:44MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:50MINJordan Greenway: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:50STLJosh Leivo: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:21MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P3 19:21STLJosh Leivo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:21MINJake Middleton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Gaudreau – Boldy6:21
xG 0.55–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel10:25
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar7:39
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:14
xG 0.36–0.75 (33%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba12:26
xG 0.95–0.28 (77%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton11:38
xG 0.95–0.33 (74%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Merrill – Addison13:19
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Barbashev – Acciari6:04
xG 0.55–0.16 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas6:52
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Leivo – Walker – Toropchenko4:05
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Saad5:20
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Rosen2:49
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Rosen8:25
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Parayko – Mikkola14:33
xG 0.77–0.65 (54%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).