Sun, Jan 1, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
New York Rangers 5, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 116 | 27 | 25 | 528 |
| FLA | 08 | 213 | 114 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:36NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 10:30NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Braden Schneider · Slap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 13:57FLANick CousinsAssists: Eric Staal, Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 15:44NYRChris KreiderAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.27 xG3–1
- P2 19:02FLASam BennettPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 1:38NYRVincent TrocheckPPGWGAssists: Chris Kreider · Poke, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 2:53FLAEric StaalUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 10:04NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Ben Harpur · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:26FLAEric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:36NYRVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:40FLASam Bennett: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 3:38FLAEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:23NYRSammy Blais: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:23NYRArtemi Panarin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:25NYRBen Harpur: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:16FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko11:01
xG 0.77–0.75 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Kravtsov9:56
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Vesey – Chytil – Lafrenière6:03
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Blais – Gauthier7:08
xG 0.30–0.70 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:54
xG 0.84–0.70 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Harpur – Miller2:22
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Harpur – Schneider10:00
xG 0.20–0.42 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk9:33
xG 1.09–0.98 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Cousins – Reinhart – Lundell7:45
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bennett – White – Luostarinen9:17
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Dalpe – Lomberg5:49
xG 0.18–0.21 (45%)attempts 6–5goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour8:43
xG 1.24–0.35 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling7:13
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Gudas – Mahura9:42
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).