Sun, Jan 1, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
New York Islanders 1, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 06 | 07 | 119 |
| SEA | 112 | 215 | 18 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Ryan Donato, Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:30NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Casey Cizikas, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 3:58SEAEeli TolvanenPPGWGAssists: Vince Dunn, Jared McCann · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:04SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 19:25SEABrandon TanevENAssists: Vince Dunn, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:19SEAJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:54SEAJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:44NYIAatu Räty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:57NYISebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Cizikas – Barzal9:02
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier10:29
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Martin – Johnston – Räty4:02
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Fasching10:30
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Wotherspoon6:11
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Romanov3:32
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pulock – Romanov2:21
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:40
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Eberle – Burakovsky – Beniers13:01
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Donato – Sprong – Tanev4:19
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:40
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Soucy – Borgen14:16
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak15:28
xG 0.37–0.73 (33%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).