Mon, Jan 2, 2023·Fenway Park, BostonOutdoor game
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 014 | 16 | 07 | 127 |
| BOS | 010 | 09 | 210 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:40PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Danton Heinen, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 7:46BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brad Marchand, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 17:36BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:33PITTeddy Blueger: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:24PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Interference2 min
- P2 2:34BOSDavid Pastrnak: Holding2 min
- P2 4:38BOSHampus Lindholm: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:11BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:40PITBrian Dumoulin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kapanen – Heinen2:09
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel16:22
xG 0.55–0.52 (52%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell11:03
xG 0.43–0.60 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Carter – Blueger – McGinn7:51
xG 0.09–0.45 (17%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Rutta16:01
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Smith7:43
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel6:52
xG 0.04–0.29 (11%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Hall – DeBrusk2:20
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak4:13
xG 0.11–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic6:17
xG 0.19–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Foligno – Smith – Nosek4:16
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo2:48
xG 0.44–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy5:30
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy10:59
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).