Tue, Jan 3, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 29 | 17 | 07 | 323 |
| NYR | 16 | 111 | 314 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24CARBrent BurnsAssists: Paul Stastny, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 16:26NYRJacob TroubaPPAssists: Vitali Kravtsov, Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–1
- P1 16:42CARMartin NecasAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 16:45NYRMika ZibanejadPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:14CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 0:36NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 10:27NYRK'Andre MillerGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Kaapo Kakko · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 18:57NYRFilip ChytilENAssists: K'Andre Miller, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.75 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:46CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:39NYRVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:14CARBrent Burns: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:14NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:29CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:12NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:59CARBrent Burns: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:27CARAndrei Svechnikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:11NYRArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:15CARJordan Martinook: Broken stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis9:47
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:22
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov11:19
xG 0.74–0.70 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Stepan – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov2:11
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:00
xG 0.89–0.52 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 1–2
- de Haan – Chatfield10:41
xG 0.55–0.44 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:48
xG 0.06–0.57 (9%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Kakko2:22
xG 0.29–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Lafrenière3:41
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko8:54
xG 0.34–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Kravtsov12:35
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:20
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Harpur – Schneider9:34
xG 0.06–0.28 (17%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller12:20
xG 0.63–0.97 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).