Tue, Jan 3, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 3, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 115 | 18 | 14 | 327 |
| NSH | 315 | 210 | 19 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10NSHCody GlassPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 5:49NSHColton SissonsAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 10:42NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P1 19:10MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 6:40MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Anthony Richard · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 8:18NSHTommy NovakGWGAssists: Yakov Trenin, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 17:48NSHRoman JosiAssists: Tommy Novak, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 4:43NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Roman Josi, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.20 xG2–6
- P3 16:59MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Mike Hoffman, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.22 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:32MTLJoel Edmundson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 7:59NSHCody Glass: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:41MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:32MTLChris Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:32NSHColton Sissons: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:48NSHRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P2 18:34NSHYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:13NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:58MTLJordan Harris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16MTLJake Evans: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Parssinen won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield9:59
xG 0.84–0.53 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Evans – Pezzetta – Slafkovský5:01
xG 0.06–0.01 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dvorak9:06
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Anderson – Drouin – Richard7:50
xG 0.21–0.61 (26%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Xhekaj12:17
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Savard – Harris15:42
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Barron12:27
xG 0.53–1.22 (30%)attempts 11–24goals 1–4
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Trenin – Jeannot9:31
xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Forsberg – Sissons – Parssinen7:18
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Duchene – Johansen – Jankowski6:30
xG 0.31–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Granlund – Niederreiter – Glass8:49
xG 0.23–0.66 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcKeown – Lauzon12:34
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi12:49
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Carrier13:06
xG 0.60–0.81 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).