Tue, Jan 3, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 09 | 411 | 14 | 524 |
| EDM | 114 | 14 | 014 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:47EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:48EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Mattias Janmark, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 4:44SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Daniel Sprong, Justin Schultz · Bat, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 5:15SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Matty Beniers, Adam Larsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 12:42SEAYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 15:48SEAJared McCannAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 17:29SEAAlexander WennbergENAssists: Brandon Tanev, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.78 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:08SEADaniel Sprong: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:21EDMEvan Bouchard: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:52SEAJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
- P3 6:53EDMDylan Holloway: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 18:24SEARyan Donato: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Sprong – Tanev4:33
xG 0.40–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Burakovsky – Beniers12:06
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:36
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – McCann10:17
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak13:31
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn17:31
xG 0.91–0.81 (53%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Soucy – Borgen13:21
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi7:49
xG 0.76–0.08 (90%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:07
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – Yamamoto7:24
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – McLeod – Holloway5:40
xG 0.02–0.39 (6%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard4:20
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Broberg10:25
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Barrie – Broberg2:09
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).