Sat, Jan 7, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 010 | 05 | 123 |
| TOR | 02 | 212 | 215 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57DETJake WalmanAssists: Olli Maatta, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:24TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:37TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 6:19TORPontus HolmbergAssists: Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 18:21TORJohn TavaresENAssists: Mitch Marner, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.74 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:54DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:48DETJake Walman: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:56TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:54TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P1 18:39DETJonatan Berggren: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:05TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:51DETBen Chiarot: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:53DETPius Suter: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:21TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Erne – Suter7:19
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Raymond11:04
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Veleno – Soderblom6:19
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Perron – Larkin – Berggren9:25
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider11:40
xG 0.57–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Hronek11:58
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Maatta – Oesterle9:40
xG 0.24–0.75 (24%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Engvall – Kampf8:12
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner5:53
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hunt – Aston-Reese – Holmberg4:50
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews10:01
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin12:12
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Holl12:32
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Brodie – Rielly13:28
xG 0.33–0.69 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).