Sat, Jan 7, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 5, Buffalo Sabres 6 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 318 | 211 | 06 | 544 |
| BUF | 18 | 311 | 114 | 14 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:00BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:52MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Ryan Hartman, Mathew Dumba · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 6:46MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Calen Addison, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 10:30BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 12:02BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 13:55BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 18:45MINRyan HartmanAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Bat, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 0:26MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 7:48MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Calen Addison, Marc-Andre Fleury · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 17:36BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Owen Power · Slap, 0.03 xG5–5
- OT 4:41BUFVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.12 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:19MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:22BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24BUFJack Quinn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:24MINConnor Dewar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:42MINKirill Kaprizov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:32BUFKale Clague: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:27BUFTyson Jost: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKaprizov – Steel – Boldy12:38
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:49
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Duhaime10:34
xG 0.74–0.66 (53%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:03
xG 0.10–0.35 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton10:28
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
- Middleton – Addison3:01
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba21:17
xG 0.72–0.73 (50%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt8:33
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs12:45
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka7:02
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson15:50
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Power2:28
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Power2:48
xG 0.02–0.01 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin6:17
xG 0.17–0.30 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).