Sat, Jan 7, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Seattle Kraken 8, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 37 | 28 | 39 | 824 |
| OTT | 111 | 25 | 17 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:21OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 12:53SEAJared McCannAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 15:13SEAJustin SchultzAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Daniel Sprong · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 6:35OTTTim StützlePPUnassisted · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 8:34OTTTim StützleAssists: Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 8:56SEADaniel SprongAssists: Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 14:13SEAMatty BeniersGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 1:19SEAVince DunnAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Adam Larsson · Slap, 0.04 xG6–3
- P3 4:55SEAJordan EberleAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–3
- P3 5:20OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.24 xG7–4
- P3 9:59SEAAndre BurakovskyAssists: Jordan Eberle, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.11 xG8–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:27SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:25SEAWill Borgen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:39OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:22SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Burakovsky – Beniers11:23
xG 0.55–0.46 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 4–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:03
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie8:23
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – McCann10:18
xG 0.13–0.73 (15%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Oleksiak14:46
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn19:29
xG 0.58–0.71 (45%)attempts 16–17goals 4–1
- Soucy – Borgen12:51
xG 0.19–0.69 (22%)attempts 4–13goals 2–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle7:27
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto7:44
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Gambrell – Kelly – Lucchini8:06
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle8:21
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub15:20
xG 0.78–0.27 (74%)attempts 16–7goals 2–1
- Chabot – Brannstrom7:12
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Sanderson – Zub5:55
xG 0.03–0.07 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).