Sat, Jan 7, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 4, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 14 | 29 | 422 |
| MTL | 011 | 210 | 36 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:25STLBrandon SaadAssists: Brayden Schenn, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 1:43MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jake Evans, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:59STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Nikita Alexandrov · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 16:15MTLKirby DachPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 0:36MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 2:29STLNikita AlexandrovAssists: Calle Rosen, Tyler Pitlick · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 4:42STLPavel BuchnevichPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.34 xG4–3
- P3 7:20MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jake Evans, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 11:30MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Johnathan Kovacevic · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:58MTLMichael Pezzetta: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:14MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:47STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P2 12:44STLIvan Barbashev: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:16STLNikita Alexandrov: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:53MTLMichael Pezzetta: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov8:10
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Leivo – Acciari – Neighbours7:56
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Schenn – Saad – Barbashev10:10
xG 0.38–0.42 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas9:11
xG 0.29–0.80 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSantini – Rosen4:44
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Parayko – Mikkola10:37
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Parayko – Rosen4:40
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Armia – Evans9:15
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield12:16
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Drouin – Richard – Pezzetta4:26
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Dvorak – Slafkovský9:35
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris15:54
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Savard – Edmundson13:28
xG 0.81–0.56 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Wideman – Xhekaj8:28
xG 0.41–0.80 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).