Sun, Jan 8, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 4, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 214 | 212 | 012 | 438 |
| WPG | 210 | 39 | 28 | 727 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:59WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 15:14VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P1 17:33VANJack StudnickaAssists: Luke Schenn, Dakota Joshua · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 3:40WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Brenden Dillon, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 5:34WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Adam Lowry, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P2 7:05VANBo HorvatAssists: J.T. Miller, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P2 9:26VANSheldon DriesPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–4
- P2 18:17WPGAxel Jonsson-FjallbyGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 5:29WPGDylan DeMeloSHAssists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 13:42WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–7
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:37WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:36WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:54WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Lockwood – Dries7:25
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Miller – Pettersson – Kuzmenko12:36
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 1–3
- Horvat – Boeser – Mikheyev13:04
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Lazar – Joshua – Studnicka10:32
xG 0.43–0.82 (34%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson16:22
xG 0.86–0.63 (58%)attempts 10–14goals 1–3
- Schenn – Dermott12:11
xG 0.60–0.39 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
- Bear – Hughes18:26
xG 0.47–0.94 (33%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Connor – Dubois14:05
xG 1.48–0.47 (76%)attempts 23–8goals 3–1
- Lowry – Barron – Kuhlman10:35
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Gagner – Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby5:09
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 1–2
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti15:00
xG 0.32–0.79 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Schmidt9:06
xG 0.66–0.12 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg5:13
xG 0.72–0.23 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk7:25
xG 0.24–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).