Tue, Jan 10, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 17 | 211 | 324 |
| TBL | 221 | 112 | 313 | 646 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Erik Cernak, Brandon Hagel · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 9:05TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 7:04CBJGavin BayreutherAssists: Jack Roslovic, Patrik Laine · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 10:25TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 4:35CBJTim BerniAssists: Patrik Laine, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 6:33TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 12:22TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 13:48TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Patrick Maroon, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–6
- P3 16:34CBJKirill MarchenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:40CBJMarcus Bjork: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:55CBJCarson Meyer: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:55TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:40TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:11CBJTim Berni: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:22CBJElvis Merzlikins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:22CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBemstrom – Marchenko – Sillinger3:57
xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Roslovic – Laine10:54
xG 0.81–0.80 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
- Kuraly – Olivier – Foudy10:56
xG 0.63–0.80 (44%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Bemstrom – Johnson9:55
xG 0.15–0.37 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Bayreuther2:14
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bayreuther – Boqvist11:53
xG 0.61–0.67 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Peeke – Bjork13:03
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Paul – Colton9:03
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli10:33
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare9:11
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel9:40
xG 0.93–1.12 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev3:59
xG 0.87–0.05 (94%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak12:58
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Sergachev – Perbix13:36
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).