Tue, Jan 10, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 3, New York Rangers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 213 | 010 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 332 |
| NYR | 011 | 220 | 16 | 06 | 2 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:36MINJon MerrillAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 17:43MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Sam Steel, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 2:37NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:50NYRAdam FoxUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 4:33MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Sam Steel, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 13:35NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Adam Fox, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Kaapo Kakko scored
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 5. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
- 6. MIN Frederick Gaudreau stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:30MINMatt Boldy: Kneeing2 min
- P1 3:38MINMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:48NYRFilip Chytil: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:57NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Embellishment2 min
- P2 13:57MINBrandon Duhaime: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:35MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar6:17
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Boldy10:28
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek13:56
xG 0.55–0.82 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel13:15
xG 0.49–0.83 (37%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:14
xG 1.10–0.43 (72%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Merrill – Addison9:49
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Dumba – Middleton3:46
xG 0.12–0.57 (17%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko11:44
xG 1.27–0.36 (78%)attempts 27–8goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Vesey – Chytil3:04
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Kravtsov12:06
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Kakko – Lafrenière2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren16:51
xG 1.24–0.44 (74%)attempts 28–9goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller17:31
xG 0.76–0.76 (50%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Harpur – Schneider11:11
xG 0.08–0.66 (10%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).