Tue, Jan 10, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 5, Detroit Red Wings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 217 | 213 | 537 |
| DET | 38 | 29 | 26 | 723 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16DETJake WalmanAssists: Moritz Seider, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:21DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Andrew Copp, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 15:27DETOskar SundqvistAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 17:17WPGNeal PionkAssists: Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 2:57DETDominik KubalikAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 9:46WPGSam GagnerAssists: David Gustafsson, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 12:08WPGNate SchmidtAssists: Cole Perfetti, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P2 17:38DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 0:33WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Kyle Connor, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 1:52DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Joseph Veleno · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–6
- P3 14:55WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–6
- P3 18:40DETLucas RaymondENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.79 xG5–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:23WPGKarson Kuhlman: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:05WPGDavid Gustafsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:37WPGBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:48DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:12DETMoritz Seider: Interference2 min
- P3 14:26DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Veleno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Connor – Dubois11:53
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 19–6goals 1–2
- Lowry – Barron – Kuhlman6:41
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson6:22
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti12:49
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk5:22
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk8:17
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 2–2
- Schmidt – Pionk3:19
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:35
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Perron – Fabbri – Veleno11:35
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Kubalik – Suter5:05
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Copp – Rasmussen – Berggren10:58
xG 0.40–1.15 (26%)attempts 11–19goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Lindstrom4:03
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Maatta – Lindstrom6:09
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider15:03
xG 0.54–1.00 (35%)attempts 12–19goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).