Tue, Jan 10, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Florida Panthers 5, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 311 | 117 | 110 | 538 |
| COL | 113 | 04 | 314 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Anton Lundell · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:52FLABrandon MontourAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 13:47FLASam BennettPPAssists: Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.26 xG3–0
- P1 19:06COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Kurtis MacDermid, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P2 19:08FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 6:29COLMikko RantanenAssists: Brad Hunt, J.T. Compher · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 6:49COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 12:07COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Kurtis MacDermid, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 16:30FLAMatthew TkachukPPGWGUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:17FLASam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:38COLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:43FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:47FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:47FLAGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:47COLKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:47COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:21FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:41COLJ.T. Compher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:41FLABrandon Montour: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:40COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:22
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 1–3
- Staal – Cousins – Luostarinen8:52
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell13:01
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- White – Lomberg – Smith4:50
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mahura2:30
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Montour13:44
xG 1.03–0.66 (61%)attempts 18–18goals 2–0
- Ekblad – Forsling17:34
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Rantanen – Newhook7:14
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rodrigues11:14
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Compher – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:09
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor4:53
xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Girard2:37
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard7:22
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar2:24
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).