Tue, Jan 10, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
San Jose Sharks 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 112 | 111 | 210 | 433 |
| ARI | 210 | 08 | 011 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39SJSKevin LabancAssists: Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 6:29ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:21ARIChristian FischerAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 5:59SJSNico SturmAssists: Nick Bonino, Oskar Lindblom · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 0:09SJSMatt NietoGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Alexander Barabanov · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 14:10SJSJaycob MegnaAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:38SJSKevin Labanc: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:21SJSMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:21ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:56ARIPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P2 7:32ARIJack McBain: Interference2 min
- P2 14:03SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:26SJSJaycob Megna: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:27SJSNick Bonino: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Eyssimont – Sturm6:39
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich7:43
xG 0.20–0.13 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov9:35
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier8:17
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Harrington8:53
xG 1.56–0.17 (90%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Megna13:39
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 16–8goals 3–1
- Benning – Ferraro11:17
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Fischer – McBain2:31
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:30
xG 0.41–0.23 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Guenther10:48
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer4:57
xG 0.15–0.65 (19%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Brown – Moser4:44
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Välimäki – Moser5:02
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun15:28
xG 0.68–0.83 (45%)attempts 24–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).