Wed, Jan 11, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Nashville Predators 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 17 | 016 | 133 |
| TOR | 115 | 07 | 113 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:54TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Timothy Liljegren · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:46NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Juuso Parssinen, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 18:45TORMitch MarnerPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:03NSHTanner Jeannot: Interference2 min
- P1 9:57TORDryden Hunt: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:02NSHMark Jankowski: Interference2 min
- P2 14:09NSHDante Fabbro: Interference2 min
- P3 9:21TORPierre Engvall: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:38NSHMark Jankowski: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Granlund – Niederreiter4:16
xG 0.81–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Duchene – Forsberg – Parssinen6:52
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Jankowski2:55
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot6:07
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi16:39
xG 1.09–0.83 (57%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro12:08
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Carrier12:04
xG 0.09–0.46 (16%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Nylander – Bunting3:42
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Engvall6:26
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Kampf – McMann7:38
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner9:09
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Timmins10:52
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin12:12
xG 0.74–0.59 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Giordano – Liljegren2:03
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).