Thu, Jan 12, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Nashville Predators 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 114 | 120 | 342 |
| MTL | 219 | 19 | 17 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:35NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 13:30MTLJake EvansAssists: David Savard, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:08MTLKirby DachAssists: Jesse Ylonen, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 0:12NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Juuso Parssinen · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 10:03MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 6:15MTLCole CaufieldPPGWGAssists: Kirby Dach, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 18:31NSHJuuso ParssinenAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Cody Glass · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:06MTLKirby Dach: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:48MTLChristian Dvorak: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:48NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P1 13:56NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P1 13:56MTLJustin Barron: Embellishment2 min
- P2 0:21NSHAlexandre Carrier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:48NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:13MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:13NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:52MTLEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:32MTLChris Wideman: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:44NSHNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Parssinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Forsberg – Parssinen5:07
xG 0.36–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Johansen – Sissons – Smith5:50
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Granlund – Niederreiter – Glass6:29
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot6:51
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier8:38
xG 1.13–0.53 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Josi – Ekholm5:35
xG 0.52–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro7:58
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Dvorak – Slafkovský8:53
xG 1.02–0.65 (61%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Armia – Evans8:26
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield10:29
xG 0.73–0.96 (43%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris7:02
xG 1.12–0.10 (92%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Xhekaj6:09
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Harris – Barron7:16
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).