Thu, Jan 12, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vancouver Canucks 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 115 | 110 | 215 | 440 |
| TBL | 111 | 311 | 113 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14VANConor GarlandAssists: Bo Horvat, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:37TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Ross Colton · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 2:30TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nick Perbix, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 5:44VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Collin Delia · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 15:44TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 19:29TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Alex Killorn, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 5:30TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 14:40VANQuinn HughesAssists: Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 17:52VANElias PetterssonAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:56TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Instigator2 min
- P1 9:56VANLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
- P1 9:56TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:56VANLane Pederson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:56TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 12:39VANEthan Bear: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:44TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 1:21TBLNick Paul: Holding2 min
- P3 4:26VANLuke Schenn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:01VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:57TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Horvat – Garland11:17
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Boeser – Pettersson – Kuzmenko13:57
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Lazar – Joshua – Lockwood9:00
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pederson – Studnicka – Mikheyev7:39
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes6:15
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Bear – Stillman6:29
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Bear5:21
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point10:10
xG 1.17–0.12 (90%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare5:33
xG 0.05–0.02 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paul – Colton9:56
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel9:49
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev6:25
xG 0.29–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Perbix12:14
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Hedman13:30
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).