Thu, Jan 12, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Minnesota Wild 3, New York Islanders 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 017 | 312 | 336 |
| NYI | 14 | 010 | 06 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:49NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Matt Martin, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 10:55MINFrederick GaudreauSHAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 12:28MINSam SteelGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 18:48MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:30MINJake Middleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:38NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:03NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:40NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:17MINSam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:51NYIAlexander Romanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:01MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:01NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:33NYIScott Mayfield: Delaying game2 min
- P3 10:00MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel9:57
xG 0.99–0.08 (92%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Boldy7:21
xG 0.50–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:27
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar6:10
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:37
xG 1.03–0.41 (72%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:28
xG 0.69–0.10 (87%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Merrill – Addison9:01
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Barzal – Holmstrom6:25
xG 0.29–0.22 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:58
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:15
xG 0.30–0.58 (35%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Fasching6:45
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Wotherspoon9:37
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:22
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Aho2:59
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).