Fri, Jan 13, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 115 | 214 | 111 | 440 |
| PIT | 18 | 08 | 07 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:19WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Cole Perfetti · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 16:42PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Jan Rutta · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:58WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 18:20WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Kyle Connor, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 6:39WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Cole Perfetti · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:45PITJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:15WPGCole Perfetti: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 7:21PITTy Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:18PITJason Zucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:18WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:45WPGDavid Rittich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti11:33
xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois12:42
xG 0.74–0.52 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Gagner – Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby7:57
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Kuhlman10:06
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk13:03
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey5:09
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg7:22
xG 0.14–0.03 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – McGinn2:45
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Heinen7:59
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:38
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Carter – Kapanen – O'Connor9:12
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Smith10:43
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Joseph – Smith2:00
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Smith6:44
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).