Sat, Jan 14, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 6, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 215 | 413 | 08 | 636 |
| DAL | 19 | 112 | 313 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:10CGYTrevor LewisPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 15:34DALJamie BennSHAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 10:54CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Rasmus Andersson · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 13:07CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Michael Stone · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 16:38CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.02 xG5–1
- P2 17:57CGYChris TanevGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.03 xG6–1
- P2 19:14DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 7:19DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Esa Lindell · Other, 1.00 xG6–3
- P3 12:54DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG6–4
- P3 15:23DALColin MillerAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Slap, 0.01 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:31CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:12DALTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:30CGYAdam Ruzicka: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:53DALMason Marchment: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:09DALJani Hakanpää: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:07DALFredrik Olofsson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 10:02DALFredrik Olofsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Ruzicka – Duehr5:09
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:47
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau8:41
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube10:43
xG 0.49–1.40 (26%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar14:47
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 16–17goals 2–0
- Stone – Zadorov10:28
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson13:20
xG 0.79–1.68 (32%)attempts 19–16goals 1–4
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Seguin – Robertson11:46
xG 1.70–0.13 (93%)attempts 19–8goals 3–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Marchment2:22
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Faksa – Olofsson – Kiviranta2:08
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston2:38
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell10:34
xG 1.20–0.58 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Miller – Heiskanen15:58
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 21–16goals 3–2
- Suter – Lundkvist12:15
xG 0.33–0.64 (34%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).