Sat, Jan 14, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 314 | 18 | 03 | 425 |
| DET | 08 | 08 | 312 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:47CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:54CBJVladislav GavrikovAssists: Kent Johnson, Emil Bemstrom · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 15:30CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Jack Roslovic, Nick Blankenburg · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 1:32CBJPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Adam Boqvist, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 5:50DETOlli MaattaAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 7:08DETJake WalmanUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 15:56DETLucas RaymondAssists: Filip Hronek, Ben Chiarot · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:01CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:53CBJSean Kuraly: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:54DETDominik Kubalik: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Roslovic – Laine12:57
xG 1.10–0.29 (79%)attempts 16–8goals 3–1
- Bemstrom – Marchenko – Johnson7:51
xG 0.55–0.20 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Robinson11:55
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Foudy9:31
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni12:26
xG 0.77–0.21 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Boqvist14:05
xG 0.56–0.08 (88%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Gudbranson – Gavrikov2:00
xG 0.46–0.05 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Larkin5:35
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Rasmussen3:45
xG 0.07–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Berggren7:40
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Raymond7:33
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Oesterle15:40
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Hronek15:29
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Walman – Seider13:25
xG 0.15–0.94 (14%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).