Sat, Jan 14, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 5, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 114 | 29 | 210 | 533 |
| NSH | 15 | 217 | 019 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 15:23NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Juuso Parssinen · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:05BUFDylan CozensAssists: JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 8:58BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Owen Power, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 15:10NSHJeremy LauzonAssists: Cody Glass, Colton Sissons · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 15:50NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Dante Fabbro, Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 6:43BUFKyle OkposoSHGWGAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Mattias Samuelsson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 16:49BUFJack QuinnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:10NSHRoland McKeown: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:42BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:52NSHCole Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:19NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:45BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P2 19:47NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:57BUFTyson Jost: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Parssinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka6:58
xG 1.03–0.38 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt9:26
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Okposo – Asplund – Jost2:12
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson12:25
xG 0.95–0.91 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin16:42
xG 1.22–0.49 (71%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Power15:46
xG 0.92–0.55 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Bryson – Lyubushkin8:26
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Granlund – Niederreiter10:35
xG 0.86–0.60 (59%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot6:27
xG 0.33–0.33 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sissons – Glass – Smith6:56
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Duchene – Forsberg – Parssinen10:54
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm3:02
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro12:07
xG 0.56–0.82 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- McKeown – Lauzon9:43
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).